Technical know-how is not enough: Geopolitical risks in international projects. -Interview with Philippe Welti

You served as Ambassador to Iran and represented Switzerland’s interests as a protecting power for the USA. What can Swiss companies take away from this diplomatic experience when operating in geopolitically sensitive regions?

First, a clarification. Switzerland’s special role in Iran stems from its mandate as a “protecting power” for the USA. Such a mandate fundamentally excludes any mediating role between the conflicting parties. To your question: Successful business operations in geopolitically sensitive regions require a deep analysis of the political conditions in and around a given country—similar to commercial due diligence—before undertaking business-related activities. For countries that are considered potentially critical, it is advisable to involve the Swiss embassy responsible for that country or region early on. Businesspeople in difficulty often think of Swiss diplomatic and consular services only once significant damage has occurred or is imminent. In general, working with the Swiss Business Hubs is very worthwhile. They operate autonomously under the embassies and rely on well-established local staff. Finally, peer‑to‑peer connections and active engagement with local organizations such as the Swiss Business Association or Chambers of Commerce are highly recommended. In India, for example, I witnessed the added value generated by networking between the Swiss embassy in New Delhi, the Swiss Business Hub in Mumbai, and the Swiss‑Indian Chamber of Commerce in the dynamic regions.

What role can Switzerland play in strengthening the competitiveness and resilience of its export industry?

It’s an age‑old truth: you remain competitive only if you face international competition without state subsidies. Switzerland’s authorities have a long‑standing experience of not artificially preserving industries that cannot survive in international competition based on their own strength. Naturally, industries essential for national interests—such as security or supply—are exceptions that may require state support. Yet domestic political debates often call for structural support even in cases where it isn’t truly necessary.

In foreign trade policy, Swiss authorities have always advocated for trade agreements and rules. This strategy strives to establish the most suitable framework conditions. The fight for an open and free global trade order was long taken for granted. Since the U.S. president has caused and sustained general uncertainty in world trade, defending this order has become a virtue that must be actively upheld.

In your work with “Share‑an‑Ambassador” you offer geopolitical coaching. What themes are central for export‑oriented SMEs, and how can such coaching concretely help mitigate risks?

We convey, through media articles and public appearances, the “big picture” of the global world. We analyze the role of key actors and explain the power dynamics that emerge. The focus is always on the politically, economically and militarily most important countries and major regions, their relations to each other, and their influence on neighboring states and the global order. Recently we have focused on how and where the Western, liberal world order—based on respect for the rule of law—is being challenged. Over about three decades, China—with its collectivist social and economic structures—has emerged as the main threat to the global order. Ironically, the USA—who founded that order—is now also becoming one of its challengers.

We also analyze factors in specific countries or regions that determine the opportunities for our export industry. We follow what we call “geopolitical due diligence,” which we encourage or, upon request, guide interested companies through. We believe that every market‑related commercial due diligence (regarding market entry, market conditions, ease of doing business, etc.) should be preceded by a clearly separate geopolitical analysis. As active ambassadors, we have repeatedly seen at our postings that “unpleasant surprises” in new markets were often due to the absence of a careful political analysis before market entry.

Which regions or markets do you see as particularly promising for the Swiss export economy in the coming years?

The Indo‑Pacific region is the area that will dominate development in the 21st century. Key players are the USA, China, India, Northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea) and Southeast Asia (including Australia). For Switzerland’s traditionally globally oriented export industry, mid‑size and smaller markets should also be considered once they commit to greater liberalization. I want to emphasize that our first successful steps from Switzerland must invariably be within Europe. If relations with the U.S. continue to deteriorate, forcing Europe—both within and outside the EU—to adopt a more independent role, there is an opportunity for Europeans to refocus on growth policies and revive instruments of liberal economic order. Calls for deregulation are on the rise again. Thus, Europe's neighborhood must once more become the central strategic focus.

Looking ahead, what skills and capabilities should professionals develop to succeed in this environment?

The prerequisites for global business success from Switzerland are not new—but they remain at the core of any company strategy: outstanding excellence in innovation, production and marketing, enabling a firm to compete at the top globally in its chosen field or with its product. What has now gained added importance is the ability to recognize— or even anticipate—surprising shifts in international power relations and political structures faster than others, in order to make operational or business adaptations promptly. Flexibility and agility have become immensely more significant. We are convinced that systematic “geopolitical due diligence,” including in geographically diverse supply chains, is a necessary foundation.

Thank you very much for this insightful exchange.

Philippe Welti served as Swiss Ambassador (India and Iran, previously Director of Security Policy in the Defense Department) and, together with Dr. Daniel Woker (Ambassador to Australia, Singapore and Kuwait), founded “Share‑an‑Ambassador / Geopolitics by Experts”—a company and platform for geopolitical analysis and tailored coaching. They regularly speak and publish.

This interview was published in the June 2025 edition of Swissrail's magazine “express.”

You can read the full issue here.